The China Agenda for October 16–22 — BRI Summit, more U.S. chip export curbs, and a new defense minister for China?

The key events this week are the 10th anniversary BRI Cooperation Summit and new export controls from Washington.

Upcoming diplomatic visits and international political events

The third Belt and Road International Cooperation Summit takes place in Beijing October 17–18. This year marks the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative’s launch. The theme for the summit is “High-quality Belt and Road Cooperation: Together for Common Development and Prosperity.”

• A white paper has been published, titled: The Belt and Road Initiative: A Key Pillar of the Global Community of Shared Future.
• China’s President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 will attend the opening ceremony of the forum, deliver a keynote speech, and hold a welcoming banquet and bilateral events for the guests attending the forum.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with Xi on the sidelines of the event. This marks the first time he has left Russia since a warrant for his arrest on alleged war crimes was issued by the International Criminal Court.
• French President Emmanuel Macron will send former prime minister and longtime China friend Jean-Pierre Raffarin to attend the forum.

Other heads of state expected to attend include:

• Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe
• Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin
• Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet
• Chilean President Gabriel Boric
• Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban
• Indonesian President Joko Widodo
• Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev
• Lao Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone
• Pakistani Prime Minister Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar
• Russian President Vladimir Putin
• Serbian President Aleksander Vucic
• Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev
• Kenyan President William Ruto
• Secretary-General of ASEAN Dr. Kao Kim Hourn

The Biden administration will unveil a new set of measures early this week to further restrict China’s access to advanced microchip technology. According to a report in Bloomberg:

• The new rules will refine last year’s export controls and close some loopholes.
• They will oblige chip manufacturers to gain a U.S. license to do business with certain Chinese chip design companies.
• They will also strengthen controls on selling advanced chipmaking equipment and graphics chips to Chinese firms.
• They will extend to subsidiaries of Chinese firms based overseas.

China’s Special Envoy Zhái Jùn 翟隽 will visit the Middle East this week for meetings about the crisis in Israel and Gaza.

Enrique Mora, chief of staff for the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, will be in Beijing this week. He will take part in follow-up talks, which began last week. He is expected to discuss a number of regional issues.

India’s external affairs minister, S Jaishankar, embarks today on a visit to Vietnam and Singapore to bolster bilateral relations and cooperation in a wide range of areas.

• He will visit Vietnam from October 15 to 18 at the invitation of his counterpart, Bui Thanh Son.
• He will then travel to Singapore for an official visit from October 19 to 20.
• China will likely be a key point of discussion, as India seeks to shore up regional support against the P.R.C.

California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, is expected to visit China either this week or next. He plans to discuss potential cooperation on climate policies with Chinese counterparts.

Several United Nations events are happening this week:

• On October 16–20, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) will aim to rally investments for climate action, clean energy, healthcare, food security, and other development needs.
• October 18 is the expiry of the UN Security Council resolution restricting Iran’s weapons proliferation.
• On October 16–20, a Pre-sessional Working Group for the Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights holds its 73rd session.
• On October 16–20, the Human Rights Council, Intergovernmental Working Group on the Effective Implementation of the Durban Declaration and Programme of Action, holds its 21st session.
• On October 16–18, Working Group A of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization is holding its 64th session, alongside other expert meetings.
• On October 16–20, UNCITRAL is holding its Working Group IV (Electronic Commerce).
• On October 17–20, the Committee of Experts on International Cooperation in Tax Matters is holding its 27th session.
• On October 19 is the 19th session of States’ Parties to the Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment.

Argentina’s elections for the president and vice president, 24 senators (Upper House), and 130 deputies (Lower House) are being held on October 22.

• The election will likely lead to a change in Argentina’s approach to the P.R.C., pivoting to closer relations with the United States.

Political events in China

The 14th National People’s Congress (NPC) will hold its sixth legislative meeting on October 20–24. There is a possibility that the sessions will be used to replace China’s defense minister, after Lǐ Shàngfú 李尚福 disappeared in late August. “General Liú Zhènlì 刘振立, the head of the military body responsible for China’s combat operations and planning, has emerged as the top contender to replace Li,” according to Reuters.

There are nine bills that could be discussed. These include:

• A draft Patriotic Education Law, which is likely to pass.
• A draft revision to the State Council Organic Law.
• A draft revision to the Law on Guarding State Secrets.

The Party Central Committee is expected to hold a quinquennial plenary session to map out economic reforms for the years ahead this month.

• The Third Plenum, which could be held this month or in November, could herald some significant changes: Earlier this year, Xi Jinping called for updating Party theory, and senior policy advisers have been discussing theoretical innovations to support the private sector.

Technology giant Baidu, the creator of China’s leading rival to ChatGPT, hosts its annual technology conference, Baidu World 2023, on October 17 in Beijing. Its theme is “Prompt the world.” For the first time, the conference has been opened up to the general public.

China-related political events in the U.S. and around the world

This week, several relevant sessions are being held in Congress:

• On October 18 at 10 a.m. ET, the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Innovation, Data, and Commerce will hold a hearing on Safeguarding Data and Innovation: Building the Foundation for the Use of Artificial Intelligence.
• On October 18 at 10:15 a.m. ET, the House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources will hold a hearing titled “Examining the Biden Administration’s Unprecedented Obstruction of the BOEM Offshore Leasing Program.”
• On October 18 at 2:30 p.m. ET, the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Subcommittee on Space and Science is holding hearings to examine promoting safety, innovation, and competitiveness in U.S. commercial human space activities.
• On October 19 at 9 a.m. ET, the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation is holding a hearing titled “Can it work? Outside Perspectives on DOD’s Replicator Program.”
• On October 19 at 10 a.m. ET, the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Courts, Intellectual Property, and the Internet is holding a hearing on IP and Strategic Competition with China: Part III – IP Theft, Cybersecurity, and AI.
• Also on October 19 at 10 a.m. ET, the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee will hold hearings to examine the Department of Energy’s due diligence process for awarding competitive grants and loans funded through the Inflation Reduction Act and the bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the department’s overall innovation investment strategy.

The EU–U.S. Summit will be held in Washington, D.C., on October 20. According to the EU Council, the summit will seek to “advance U.S.-EU efforts to accelerate the global clean energy economy based on secure, resilient supply chains, and will continue cooperation in critical and emerging technologies, including on digital infrastructure and artificial intelligence.” The summit will also be used to “review joint activities to strengthen economic resilience and to address related challenges.”

• China is likely to dominate discussions, as the U.S. seeks to persuade the bloc to get on board with its stronger policy approach to the P.R.C.

The European Defense Tech Summit will take place in Madrid October 19–20. The first session, on Friday morning, is titled “Europe and China.”

Earnings reports, IPOs, and other business and market events

Data releases:

• On October 17, at 10 p.m. ET, China will release its monthly data on its GDP growth, both year-on-year, and over the last quarter.
• Also on October 17, at 10 p.m. ET, China will publish its year-on-year industrial production figures for September.
• Also on October 17, at 10 p.m. ET, China will publish its year-on-year retail sales numbers for September.
• Also on October 17, at 10 p.m. ET, China will publish its year-on-year fixed asset investment numbers for September.
• Also on October 17, at 10 p.m. ET, China is supposed to publish its year-on-year unemployment numbers for September.
• On October 18, at 9:30 p.m. ET, China will release its house price index data.
• On October 19, at 9:15 p.m. ET, China will release its one-year and five-year loan prime rate, a lending benchmark for new bank loans to households and businesses.

IPOs

• On October 17, Shaanxi Huada Science Technology Co. 陕西华达科技 will list on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The company’s main business is the research and development, production, and sales of electrical connectors and interconnection products. Among other things, it is also the core enterprise of the National Military RF Coaxial Electrical Connector.
• Also on October 17, Runben 润本 will list on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Runben sells a range of childcare products.

Earnings

• TSMC will hold its third-quarter 2023 earnings conference on October 19, at 2 p.m. ET.
• Tesla will post its financial results for the third quarter of 2023 after market close on Wednesday, October 18, and will hold a webcast and Q&A at 5:30 p.m. ET.
• ASML will also release its earnings for the third quarter on October 18.
• Lam Research will host its quarterly financial conference call and webcast on October 18, at 5 p.m. ET. Lam Research produces equipment for manufacturing microchips.

Other events

Academic and think-tank events this week include:

Stimson Center: A Conversation with U.S. Navy Comptroller Hon. Russell Rumbaugh, October 16, 11 a.m. ET.

Columbia WEAI: Why will Indonesia become more important and what does that mean for Japan and the US?, October 16, 8 p.m. ET.

ICAS: Annual Conference 2023, October 17, 9 a.m. ET.

CSIS: The U.S. Coast Guard in an Era of Great Power Competition with ADM Linda L. Fagan, October 17, 2:30 p.m. ET.

CSIS: UK’s First Sea Lord on the Royal Navy, October 17, 3 p.m. ET.

Asia Society: The End of China’s Economic Miracle, October 17, 6:30 p.m. ET.

Brookings: 2023 Department of Defense Strategy for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction, October 18, 10 a.m. ET.

UPenn CSCC: The 20th Party Congress: Toward Personalistic Autarky?, October 18, 4:30 p.m. ET.

Stanford APARC: Asia-Pacific Digital Health Innovation: Technology, Trust, and the Role of APEC, October 18, 5 p.m. ET.

CSIS: Digital Trade, Supply Chains, and Economic Security: Perspectives from Taipei and Washington, October 19, 9 a.m. ET.

Columbia WEAI: The Fruits of Opportunism: The Making of the World’s Largest For-profit Education Industry in China, October 19, 4 p.m. ET.

Atlantic Council: A strategic posture for a new era: Introducing the Congressional Strategic Posture report, October 20, 3 p.m. ET.