General Li Shangfu, China’s defense minister, has disappeared. Corruption?

Chinese Defense Minister Lǐ Shàngfú 李尚福 is the latest high-ranking Chinese official to go missing. The general, who hasn’t been heard from in weeks, is currently the subject of a corruption probe, according to a variety of media reports over the last few days.

Li rose steadily through the military ranks, but his time at the top was brief. He was selected for the seven-person Central Military Commission in October 2022, then was installed as the defense minister in March, just as U.S.-China relations were under stress from “balloon-gate.” He is the son of a revolutionary fighter and an engineer by training, and had been part of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) since 1982.

He made a high-profile visit to Moscow in April, where he met with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, with whom he vowed to expand military ties. He also met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In his first major speech as defense minister in June, Li said a war with the U.S. would be an “unbearable disaster” for the world.

Dennis Wilder, an expert on the Chinese military, told the Financial Times that the Equipment Development Department Li was in charge of from 2017 to 2022 had the “worst corruption” among the military. It’s unclear whether Li’s recent removal stems from previous violations or new charges during his time as defense minister. Reuters reported on Friday that the probe was related to the procurement of military equipment.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Máo Níng 毛宁 said at a press briefing on Friday that she was not aware of the situation. Li was last seen in public on August 29, when he delivered a keynote address at the China-Africa Peace and Security Forum.

President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 removed two generals from the PLA Rocket Force in July, the same month that Qín Gāng 秦刚 was ousted from his position as foreign minister. But Li’s removal may be the most significant shake-up. As the Economist notes, “if the news is accurate, it will be the first time in about six years that such a fate has befallen a sitting member of the Communist Party’s Central Military Commission, which controls the armed forces and is headed by Mr. Xi.”

“Some of the PLA’s enduring problems may be too big for Xi to solve, and they have a real impact on the PLA’s ability to achieve what he wants them to,” a U.S. official told the Wall Street Journal. “We know that corruption in the PLA runs deep enough for this to be a factor. And we know it’s had a profound effect on what they’re able to do, and how they do it.”

“I don’t think it calls into question Xi Jinping’s control of the military, but it should be a reminder about how much corruption exists in the system,” Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund told the Financial Times.

Corruption probes and purges of top officials have been a hallmark of the Xi era, but they are conducted behind the scenes, with very few details ever being revealed, leaving observers to guess at causes.

Rahm Emanuel, the U.S. ambassador to Japan, tweeted on September 8, “President Xi’s cabinet lineup is now resembling Agatha Christie’s novel And Then There Were None. First, Foreign Minister Qin Gang goes missing, then the Rocket Force commanders go missing, and now Defense Minister Li Shangfu hasn’t been seen in public for two weeks. Who’s going to win this unemployment race? China’s youth or Xi’s cabinet?”